Dr. Christof Rheinbay                                                                                    08 September 2017

 

http://cialvia.com cialis  

http://cialvia.com cialis  

 

Current Security Situation in Ukraine

 

 

 

 

 

Dear Clients,

 

 

Recently, on 24 August 2017 we celebrated the 26th birthday of Independent Ukraine. Nearly as long – since 1993 – I know this country.

 

From my point of view criminality and the socio-economic environment are related. Therefore, I want to include a short resume on the socio-economic development during the past two-and-a-half decades in this report:

 

I     26 years of Independent Ukraine: What are the socio-economic progresses?

 

II    Criminality in Ukraine compared to Germany: Are there much differences?

 

III   Statistic and Trends

 

 

Ad I) 26 years of Independent Ukraine: What are the socio-economic progresses?

 

When I came to Ukraine in 1993 from Germany I was astonished about the low productivity and the poor salaries. Productivity measured in GDP per capita in Germany was 20 times higher and salaries were much better. Ukraine was in comparison a poor country.

 

More than 20 years later we have to state, that Ukraine did not come closer to western countries like Germany; still there is the same gap in efficiency rates:

 

GDP per Capita in Current USD

(source: World Bank)

 

 

1993

2016

Germany

25.488,50

41.936,10

Ukraine

1.258,10

2.185,70

Ratio:

x 20,26

x 19,19  

 


 

 

And still average monthly wages are much higher in western countries like Germany than in Ukraine:

Average monthly Wages in uro

 

Germany

3.703

Ukraine

220

Ratio:

x 17

 

Source:            Data for Germany: www.de.statistica.com, 2016, “gross salary”/ German: “Brutto”

                        Data for Ukraine: www.ukrstat.gov.ua, 06-2017, “wage accruals per pay-roll”

 

 

And there is no much hope for better prospects. Experts assume, that GDP in 2016 and 2017 is growing + 2% per year (Source: “Wirtschaftsausblick Ukraine zur Jahresmitte 2017”, Deutsche Beratergruppe). With an inflation rate of approximately 15% assumptions concerning the “real” growth are very vague, and in fact growth might be higher or lower than this assumption. From my point of view Ukraine´s economy is still close to stagnation and it seems that Ukraine will not catch up with other European countries soon.

 

Therefore, it is astonishing that besides the economic stagnation during past, recent months, wage increases exceeded inflation by far. From my point of view this is a result of the open borders: With visa-free access to Europe it is much easier for Ukrainians to look for better paid work places abroad, and more and more people leave the country. There is already a lack of young, well educated, English speaking workforce.

 

 

II    Criminality in Ukraine compared to Germany: Are there much differences?

 

Recently, I had the honor to speak with the Mayor of Berlin, Mr. Michael Müller. Mr. Alexander Markus, Head of the German-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce, had invited me for a lunch-meeting.

 

 Of course I had prepared myself for the meeting:

 

Berlin and Kyiv are both capital cities; they are close in size and population.

 

And also criminality rate measured by the notified amount of incidents is on a similar level.

 

Nevertheless, there are many differences:

 

èAll over Europe criminality rates are increasing. However, criminality rate is growing in Kyiv with a much higher pace than in Berlin.

In Berlin there happened 20% more incidents in 2016 than at the beginning of the decade in 2010 (Source: Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik Berlin); this increase-rate occurs in Kiew nearly year by year! (Source: www.osac.gov, “Overall Crime and Safety Situation”: “15% increase in crime in 2016 over 2015 statistics”).

If criminality increases further on with the same rates, criminality risk will be much higher in Kiev than in Berlin soon.

 

 

 

 

 

èCriminals are much more brutal in Kiev, and the risk of being killed by murder is much higher than in Berlin. I asked the Mayor of Berlin, Mr. Müller, how many cases of contract killing he is aware of in his home city during the past 2 years. He remembered none.

In Kiev all of us remember several prominent people from politics and business that died by murder in recent months (see also: http://www.aif.ua/incidents/samye_gromkie_ubiystva_2016_goda_v_ukraine).Risk of being murdered during burglary is much higher in Kiev than in Berlin. Rates concerning violent crimes in Ukraine are much higher than in neighboring European countries (see statistics below: “comparing crime rate in Ukraine with neighboring countries”).

 

èAlthough, ISIS lists Ukraine as an enemy state too, other than many European cities Kiev was so far no target of a mayor terroristic attack. Unfortunately, also Berlin had to suffer from terrorism; on 19 December 2016 a truck was driven into the central Christmas market killing 12 people.

 

 

III   Statistic and Trends

 

Attached, we provide you with recent statistic data of the General Prosecutor´s Office. Statistics count the quantity of incidents; they tell few about quality aspects. Therefore, I want to add some impressions from own experience.

 

Criminals are better organized and better trained than having been earlier:

 

èPicket Pocketing: Whereas earlier criminals took personal belongings with brutal force, we noted in recent months a much more sophisticated approach. Thieves work in teams. Thieves blend in well into the environment. Teams act not only on public places, such as metro-stations, but also in bars and restaurants.

 

èBurglary: Criminals do not avoid premises no more, which are protected by intruder-alarm-systems. Standard alarm-systems used by most security companies are well known to criminals. Alarm-systems most often communicate by radio-signal only. Communication of those alarm-systems may be easily jammed. Jammers are available on the internet for approximately USD 500.

 

èOrganized criminality: Internet shops and online sellers target warehouses and logistic centers. Workforce cooperating with truck drivers steal items on demand.

 

èPolitical motivated Criminality: There have been no mass demonstrations in Ukraine in this year. However, there are more and more violent clashes between political activists and police forces. There have been several attacks of political activists on administrative buildings in Kiev and other cities of Ukraine in this year. We reported about those incidents in our Newsletter.

 


 

 

ARGUS is reacting on these threats for keeping our clients safe:

 

èPicket Pocketing: We train our security teams at Hotels and Shopping Malls in recognizing criminals. Thereby, we use video-films from past experience and we cooperate with leading trainers on this field, e.g. Borispyl Airport Training Center.

 

èBurglary: We install alarm-systems at the clients, which are using 2-channel communication and which give an alarm, if communication with the client´s site is lost. Those alarm-systems may not be jammed.

 

èOrganized Criminality: Beside the physical manned guarding we also use surveillance technology at the warehouses and logistic centers monitoring freight import and export, and securing all access points. We regularly check internet shops monitoring, if there are client´s products offered on the black market.

 

Please see below a statistic on criminality based on the data of the Prosecutor´s office (see: http://www.gp.gov.ua/ua/). All data are based on the territory of Ukraine without ATO and Crimea.

 

Data comparing crime rates in Ukraine with neighboring countries are from www.numbeo.com; please see an explanation on how data are raised under www.https://www.numbeo.com/crime/indices_explained.jsp .

 

Please refer to original sources when citing, as there might have occurred errors during translation processes.

 

 

With best regards

 

 

 

Dr. Christof Rheinbay

 

 

 

 

Attached: Statistical Information


QUATERLY REPORT (FROM JANUARY 01 2017 TO JUNE 302017.Ukraine)

GeneralinformationonthenumberofregisteredcriminaloffensesandtheresultsoftheirinvestigationsforperiodfromJanuary01,toJune30of2017

Table 1. General information about the number of reported criminal offenses and the results of the preliminaryinvestigation

 

 

Criminaloffenses recorded duringthe reportingperiod

 

Thecriminal offenses ofwhich the personserved notice ofsuspicion

The criminaloffenses in proceedings,pre- trialinvestigation, which hasbeen terminatedin accordance withArt.

280 CCPUkraine

The criminal offenses for which court proceedings are directedto

 

Totalcriminal offensesin whichthe productionis closed

Thecriminal offenses inwhich the end ofthe reportingperiod decision istaken (the expirationor termination)

 

theindictment

 

with a requestfor exemptionfrom criminalliability

 

with a requestfor the impositionof compulsory medicalmeasures

with a requestfor the impositionof compulsory educational measures

committed…

...personswho previously committedcriminal offenses

 

...groupof people

 

...intoxicated

 

...minors orwith their participation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total criminaloffenses

322184

98267

2512

82149

1230

439

111

30735

5681

6538

2621

213048

234831

 

i

n

c

l

u

d

i

n

g

have carried out a special pre-trialinvestigation

18

18

2

15

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

1

heinouscrimes

9835

2631

272

1321

21

32

0

373

429

289

64

53075

8175

seriouscrimes

104525

30938

1051

23743

538

162

26

10379

2573

1745

1076

7469

78706

Misdemeanor

131292

43819

781

39105

144

168

39

15989

2058

2181

1150

86440

90861

minoroffense

71981

17582

387

14984

455

61

43

2947

352

1920

286

65132

55705

criminaloffenses

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

warned at the stage of preparation,attempt

1239

1002

9

946

1

6

1

486

76

52

18

172

276

committedforreasonsofrace,nationalorreligious intolerance

38

4

0

1

0

2

1

0

0

0

1

4

34

related to domesticviolence

638

638

0

594

12

2

0

131

4

229

6

30

0

committed using weapons andammunition

719

527

6

382

51

1

0

128

34

56

4

155

258

theoffense is committed

regarding foreigncitizens

1008

217

4

185

0

0

1

82

20

25

8

566

815

foreignnationals

891

891

0

873

8

5

0

220

130

41

8

5

0

i

n

c

l

u

d

i

n

g

 

whichrevealed workers…

...prosecutors

6650

1669

243

1215

13

5

1

168

35

21

7

1212

5165

Including

in the militarysphere

1369

739

65

660

0

0

0

19

13

12

0

127

641

of the NationalPolice

28194

20206

536

16353

365

32

17

4399

1434

416

287

5105

10761

security

2729

886

49

605

29

7

1

63

140

8

3

279

2036

bodies exercising control overcompliance with tax laws

 

1505

 

474

 

7

 

337

 

83

 

0

 

0

 

25

 

21

 

0

 

1

 

113

 

1078

of the State Bureau ofInvestigation

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

of the National Anti-CorruptionBureau

58

13

0

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

52

 

i

n

c

l

u

d

i

n

g

Crimes against national securityUkraine

192

73

9

44

3

0

0

3

3

0

1

6

136

Crimes against life andhealth

26235

9257

106

7774

32

53

37

1561

131

2105

225

84614

17902

Crimes against freedom, honor anddignity

412

190

7

117

1

0

0

24

63

8

1

60

287

Crimesagainstsexualfreedomandsexualintegrityofa person

408

257

15

116

0

11

1

39

6

39

5

194

263

Crimes against the election, labor and other personalrights

and freedoms of man andcitizen

3623

968

7

867

2

8

1

256

27

103

4

3022

2724

Crimes againstproperty

206374

53943

1360

46198

110

240

51

21751

3871

2839

1985

93638

158098

Crimes in the sphere of economicactivity

3760

1132

13

903

114

0

0

133

129

1

4

734

2730

Crimes against theenvironment

2549

519

4

461

3

1

0

73

52

2

3

1100

2078

Crimes against publicsafety

6553

3414

80

2371

566

25

3

905

46

106

34

3340

3435

Crimes against productionsafety

662

29

0

24

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

201

638

Crimes against traffic safety and operation oftransport

11181

2597

97

1983

96

9

7

441

147

350

117

5494

8934

Crimes against public order andmorality

4760

2642

32

1967

6

23

1

424

209

263

71

1343

2714

Crimesrelatedtonarcoticdrugs,psychotropicsubstances, their analogues or precursors, and other offensesagainst publichealth

 

15954

 

8468

 

73

 

7283

 

55

 

33

 

4

 

2493

 

140

 

93

 

59

 

7408

 

8486

Crimes in the sphere of state secret, inviolability ofstate

borders, providing recruitment andmobilization

539

130

10

108

0

0

0

5

7

1

0

303

421

Crimesagainsttheauthorityofpublicauthorities,local governments, NGOs and crimes againstjournalists

14248

4885

207

3932

89

5

2

764

427

179

57

5391

10001

Crimesintheuseofcomputers(computer)systemsand computer networks and telecommunicationnetworks

1434

786

89

476

0

0

0

54

28

0

3

63

869

Crimesinserviceactivitiesandprofessionalactivitiesrelated to the provision of publicservices

11035

3168

167

2346

73

1

0

99

93

8

0

2729

8444

Crimes againstjustice

5270

988

15

885

6

14

0

625

23

21

6

2261

4350

Crimesagainsttheestablishedorderofmilitaryservice (militarycrimes)

2388

1509

196

1291

2

0

0

36

5

17

0

210

893

Crimesagainstpeace,humansecurityandinternationallaw

56

15

4

7

0

0

1

1

5

0

1

5

44

QUARTERLY REPORT (FROM JANUARY 01 2017 TO JUNE 302017)

 

GeneralinformationonthenumberofregisteredcriminaloffensesandtheresultsoftheirinvestigationsforperiodfromJanuary01,toJune30of2017

 

Table 2. Crimes against peace, human security and internationallaw

 

 

 

Criminaloffenses recorded duringthe reportingperiod

 

Thecriminal offenses ofwhich the personserved notice ofsuspicion

 

The criminaloffenses in proceedingsand pre-trialinvestigations were terminatedin accordance withArt.

280 CCPUkraine

The criminal offenses for which court proceedings are directedto

 

Totalcriminal offensesin whichthe productionis closed

Thecriminal offenses inwhich the end ofthe reportingperiod decision istaken (the expirationor termination)

 

 

theindictment

 

with a requestfor exemptionfrom criminalliability

with a requestfor the impositionof compulsory medicalmeasures

with a requestfor the impositionof compulsory educational measures

committed…

 

...personswho previously committedcriminal offenses

 

...groupof people

 

...intoxicated

 

...minors orwith their participation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totaloffenses

56

15

4

7

0

0

1

1

5

0

1

5

44

 

 

including

particularlyserious

15

10

4

7

0

0

0

1

5

0

0

0

4

 

serious

11

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

11

 

middleweight

30

4

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

1

5

29

 

minor

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

 

 

I

n

c

 l

u

d

i

n

g

Propaganda of war Art.436

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

 

Public denial or justification of crimes of fascism,neo- Nazi ideology, propaganda, production and(or) distribution of materials, which justified the crimesof the Nazis and their supporters, Art.436-1

 

39

 

4

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

1

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

1

 

5

 

38

 

Planning, preparation, launching and conductingan

aggressive war, Art.437

12

10

4

7

0

0

0

1

5

0

0

0

1

 

Genocide, Art.442

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

 

                                   

 

 

Comparing crime rate in Ukraine with neighboringcountries

*All information taken from official reports of Ministry of InternalAffairs

Table 3. Comparing crime rate in Ukraine with neighboringcountries

 

Type ofCrime

 

Ukraine

 

Russian Federation

 

Belarus

 

Moldova

 

Bulgaria

 

Hungary

 

Poland

 

Slovakia

 

Czech Republic

 

Romania

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Worries home broken and thingsstolen

49.26

36.53

23.02

41.85

42.28

38.81

26.76

21.64

24.25

25.75

Worries being mugged orrobbed

47.22

42.04

20.97

40.43

32.89

32.68

29.06

23.48

23.51

26.62

Worries carstolen

45.88

43.83

18.03

34.44

38.85

40.50

27.35

32.06

31.61

18.49

Worries things from carstolen

57.83

51.57

30.74

53.89

46.53

47.20

34.22

45.12

45.89

37.59

Worriesattacked

48.08

45.58

25.00

44.68

34.63

32.13

31.75

27.46

22.14

23.53

Worries beinginsulted

42.81

44.42

24.61

45.74

34.19

33.70

31.94

24.06

23.17

34.20

Worriesbeingsubjecttoaphysicalattackbecauseofskincolor,ethnicoriginorreligion

26.42

35.35

16.53

29.35

26.75

28.10

28.75

30.49

19.24

14.27

Problem people using or dealingdrugs

45.30

47.07

28.23

32.45

41.22

33.82

25.57

27.84

35.20

24.71

Problem property crimes such as vandalism andtheft

55.01

51.55

31.35

47.28

49.38

50.20

45.37

41.48

41.78

34.45

Problem violent crimes such as assault and armedrobbery

40.17

36.71

17.62

30.32

28.07

25.98

19.78

16.54

16.34

15.01

Problem corruption andbribery

87.50

77.58

57.54

92.39

78.71

70.14

42.24

70.96

56.42

71.89

Crime Index / SafetyIndex

50.29 /49.71

45.66 /54.34

25.74 /74.26

44.42 /55.58

40.01 /59.99

38.13 /61.87

30.53 /69.47

30.72 /69.28

29.18 /70.82

28.54 /71.46